The pillar, in detail
Economic activity (EMAE)
+2.0%
Q2 2026 GDP · +2.0% year on year, but -0.6% against the previous quarter verif 2026-T2 ↗
the Aug-2026 EMAE showed -1.7% y/y and +0.1% against July, inherited -1.1% (Nov-2023)
Pillar statusAT RISKTrend▼ worsening
The latest figure does not meet the promise yet, and is moving away from it.
What was promised
That, after the initial adjustment, activity grows again and that this growth is led by private tradable sectors.
Where it stands today
In August 2026 the EMAE fell 1.7% year on year and rose just 0.1% seasonally adjusted against July. The trend-cycle, INDEC's own trend measure, stood at 0.0%: with this report's revision, it has gone five months without growing (April to August). Over the first eight months it is up 1.2%.The fall is still in the domestic market: Manufacturing (−3.2%) and Trade (−3.5%) together took 0.9 points off the year-on-year change. Only five of the fifteen sectors were positive; Mining and quarrying (+11.1%) and Electricity, gas and water (+4.3%) contribute most, and with Hotels and restaurants (+3.1%) they add 0.6 points. Mining accelerates again against July's +8.9%. Agriculture turns negative (−1.0%) and Fishing falls 15.7% after July's extraordinary base effect.INDEC revised July: from −1.4% to −1.5% year on year, from −2.9% to −2.8% against June, and July's trend-cycle from +0.2% to 0.0%. That revision is built into the series and into our reading. verif Aug 2026 ↗
The historical series
-1.1%-1.4%
Nov-23 → Jul-26 · % YoY ↗See the 33 points of the series · between -8.2% and 7.9%
| Period | Value % YoY |
|---|---|
| Jul-26 | -1.4 |
| Jun-26 | 3.1 |
| May-26 | 0.7 |
| Apr-26 | 2.1 |
| Mar-26 | 6.4 |
| Feb-26 | -1.5 |
| Jan-26 | 2 |
| Dec-25 | 3.5 |
| Nov-25 | -0.1 |
| Oct-25 | 3.2 |
| Sep-25 | 4.8 |
| Aug-25 | 2.1 |
| Jul-25 | 2.8 |
| Jun-25 | 6.4 |
| May-25 | 5.3 |
| Apr-25 | 7.9 |
| Mar-25 | 5.8 |
| Feb-25 | 5.9 |
| Jan-25 | 6.6 |
| Dec-24 | 6.7 |
| Nov-24 | 1.2 |
| Oct-24 | 0.4 |
| Sep-24 | -2.4 |
| Aug-24 | -3.1 |
| Jul-24 | -0.4 |
| Jun-24 | -3.4 |
| May-24 | 1.9 |
| Apr-24 | -1.9 |
| Mar-24 | -8.2 |
| Feb-24 | -2.8 |
| Jan-24 | -4 |
| Dec-23 | -4.7 |
| Nov-23 | -1.1 |
How it is computed: change against the same month a year earlier, on INDEC's index
What it is measured against1
The starting point of this series is November 2023, when the EMAE stood at -1.1% year-on-year. We use that date as a common baseline to follow whether the indicator moves towards or away from the promise we measure. verif Nov 2023 ↗
The comparison, on its own, does not attribute the change to any particular policy.
Our reading
Trend▼ worsening · Agosto no repuso la caída de julio y la tendencia-ciclo del INDEC dejó de subir: el retroceso ya no es un mes aislado. Lo que crece sigue siendo el motor exportador y energético (minas, electricidad y gas); la industria y el comercio siguen en rojo.
Rule we apply stability → long-term investment
What it enables if sustained thesis
August repeated July's pattern: Manufacturing and Trade fell again and took off 0.9 points, while mining accelerated to +11.1% and electricity, gas and water rose 4.3% → growth still rests on the export and energy engine → until the domestic market keeps pace for several months in a row, firm demand for a supplier is in the exporting sectors. R4+R5
What we watchThe criterion this axis had written down was met: August gave -1.7% year on year after July's -1.5%, and INDEC's trend-cycle has been at 0.0% since April. That is why the axis moved to «at risk». To return to «on track»: the year-on-year figure must turn positive again and the trend-cycle resume growth (September EMAE: 24-Nov-2026; Q3 GDP: December). Also watch for Manufacturing and Trade to turn positive, and whether agriculture, which went to -1.0% in August, joins the falling group.
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLey 27.800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Enhanced RIGI for new activities: data centers, AI and semiconductors (half-sanctioned)Half-sanction by the Chamber of Deputies (24-Jun-2026) · in the Senate, without a committee report and without a datepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Federal Registry of Mining Suppliers: it is public, and does not certify complianceRes. S.M. 84/2022in force
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award) · private management since Sep 10, 2026in execution
Pacto de Mayo: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decreto 617/2024pending
Anti-roadblock protocol: federal forces can clear road blockadesResolución 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force
Markets linked to this pillar8
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~55 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-08
Who publishes it
INDEC's EMAE, released with a ~2-month lag on the month it measures.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows