The pillar, in detail
Disinflation
1.9%
monthly CPI · September 2026 · 33.4% y/y verif Sep 2026 ↗
inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023)
Pillar statusIN PROGRESSTrend▬ stable
The latest figure does not meet the promise yet, and is moving towards it.
What was promised
Sustained fall in inflation via the end of money printing (monetary anchor).
Where it stands today
CPI September 2026: 1.9% monthly, 33.4% y/y, 23.6% cumulative for the year. It is two tenths above August (1.7%), which had been the lowest monthly reading of the year, and the year-on-year rate falls one tenth (from 33.5% to 33.4%). Core 1.7% (meals out and pharmaceuticals); regulated 2.3% (gas, electricity and health-plan fees); seasonal 2.9%, driven by vegetables, tubers and legumes. Goods +1.7% and services +2.4% in the month. The division that rose most was Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (3.1%), followed by Education (3.0%); the lowest were Restaurants and hotels (1.1%) and Clothing and footwear (1.4%). By region the range goes from 1.4% (Patagonia) to 2.0% (GBA and Pampeana). verif Sep 2026 ↗
The historical series
12.8%1.7%
Nov-23 → Aug-26 · % monthly ↗See the 34 points of the series · between 1.5% and 25.5%
| Period | Value % monthly |
|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 1.7 |
| Jul-26 | 2.1 |
| Jun-26 | 1.9 |
| May-26 | 2.1 |
| Apr-26 | 2.6 |
| Mar-26 | 3.4 |
| Feb-26 | 2.9 |
| Jan-26 | 2.9 |
| Dec-25 | 2.8 |
| Nov-25 | 2.5 |
| Oct-25 | 2.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.1 |
| Aug-25 | 1.9 |
| Jul-25 | 1.9 |
| Jun-25 | 1.6 |
| May-25 | 1.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.8 |
| Mar-25 | 3.7 |
| Feb-25 | 2.4 |
| Jan-25 | 2.2 |
| Dec-24 | 2.7 |
| Nov-24 | 2.4 |
| Oct-24 | 2.7 |
| Sep-24 | 3.5 |
| Aug-24 | 4.2 |
| Jul-24 | 4 |
| Jun-24 | 4.6 |
| May-24 | 4.2 |
| Apr-24 | 8.8 |
| Mar-24 | 11 |
| Feb-24 | 13.2 |
| Jan-24 | 20.6 |
| Dec-23 | 25.5 |
| Nov-23 | 12.8 |
How it is computed: change against the previous month, on INDEC's index
What it is measured against4
The inflation inheritance, read in our own monthly CPI series (INDEC): November 2023 printed 12.8% monthly and December 2023 printed 25.5%, the peak of the price realignment. BOTH are kept: Nov-2023 is the strict inheritance but came with repressed prices and currency controls, so on its own it understates the starting point; the December peak is that same phenomenon once prices were allowed to realign. verif Dec 2023 ↗
2015, the year critics use as a yardstick: the City of Buenos Aires CPI (IPCBA) closed December 2015 at 26.9% year on year, with 3.9% in December alone and an average of 1.9% a month between January and November. The previous year had been 38.0%. verif Dec 2015 ↗
2016, the following year: that same IPCBA printed 41.0% year on year in December 2016, with Housing, water, electricity and other fuels up 71.2% YoY and Transport up 42.1%. That is the bill for realigning utility tariffs and the exchange rate that 2015 — an election year, with currency controls — had kept held down. verif Dec 2016 ↗
Today's comparable point on THAT same index: IPCBA July 2026, 33.2% year on year, 2.9% monthly and 19.4% accumulated in the year. Against 2015 (26.9%) today is 1.2 times, not double; against the average of the two years around that snapshot (26.9% and 41.0% = 33.8% annual equivalent) it is practically the same, but that figure was held up by currency controls and frozen tariffs. verif Jul 2026 ↗
The comparison, on its own, does not attribute the change to any particular policy.
Our reading
Trend▬ stable (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply stability → long-term investment
What it enables if sustained thesis
CPI falling toward 1-2% monthly → long contracts and 10-year economic calculation return → long-term investment (pipelines, LNG, plants) becomes financeable. R3
Disinflation + positive real rates -> credit revives: private loans are growing again in real terms, and since the inheritance the real stock has nearly doubled (Credit axis) -> mortgages and SME working capital, the channel that reaches ordinary people. R3
With core inflation (1.7% in September) running below the headline index (1.9%), convergence enables re-monetization: more pesos demanded without inflation = more credit without money printing. R3
What we watchAn inflation flare-up or a stalling of the deceleration. Still ~33% YoY: the pillar is heading the right way but is not 'met'.
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLey 27.800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Enhanced RIGI for new activities: data centers, AI and semiconductors (half-sanctioned)Half-sanction by the Chamber of Deputies (24-Jun-2026) · in the Senate, without a committee report and without a datepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Federal Registry of Mining Suppliers: it is public, and does not certify complianceRes. S.M. 84/2022in force
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award) · private management since Sep 10, 2026in execution
Pacto de Mayo: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decreto 617/2024pending
Anti-roadblock protocol: federal forces can clear road blockadesResolución 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force
Markets linked to this pillar8
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~14 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-09
Who publishes it
INDEC's CPI, with a calendar published 12 months ahead: around the 12th to 14th of the following month.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows